A method to construct a points system to predict cardiovascular disease considering repeated measures of risk factors

Current predictive models for cardiovascular disease based on points systems use the baseline situation of the risk factors as independent variables. These models do not take into account the variability of the risk factors over time. Predictive models for other types of disease also exist that do consider the temporal variability of a single biological marker in addition to the baseline variables. However, due to their complexity these other models are not used in daily clinical practice. Bearing in mind the clinical relevance of these issues and that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide we show the properties and viability of a new methodological alternative for constructing cardiovascular risk scores to make predictions of cardiovascular disease with repeated measures of the risk factors and retaining the simplicity of the points systems so often used in clinical practice (construction, statistical validation by simulation and explanation of potential utilization). We have also applied the system clinically upon a set of simulated data solely to help readers understand the procedure constructed

Relapses and obstetric outcomes in women with multiple sclerosis planning pregnancy

Abstract Objective To evaluate the effect of discontinuation of different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) before pregnancy with respect to the occurrence of relapses and pregnancy outcomes. Methods Women with multiple sclerosis who desire to bear children were followed prospectively. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, and the information on the use of DMTs were collected. A multivariate analysis was used to assess the relationship between relapses and the prior use of different DMTs. Results The present study assessed 75 consecutive pregnancy plans (66 women), 65 of which resulted in pregnancy. The mean age of the participants was 32.1 ± 4.2 years, and the mean disease duration was 6.1 ± 4.2 years. No relapses before pregnancy were reported in the group of women who maintained their DMT until pregnancy confirmation, while 14 relapses were reported in 12/42 women (29%) who discontinued DMT before pregnancy. During pregnancy, patients on natalizumab or fingolimod before pregnancy had a higher rate of relapses. Most women restarted their previous DMT after delivery within the first trimester. The relapse rate in postpartum was 0.07. Conclusions Disease-modifying therapies received influences the risk of relapse and disease progression from women who are planning pregnancy. The risk of relapse during pregnancy was significantly higher in the group of women treated with natalizumab or fingolimod compared to the group of women treated with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate. The postpartum risk of relapses was lower than that found in previous reports

Food ProteineInduced Enterocolitis Syndrome in Adulthood: Clinical Characteristics, Prognosis, and Risk Factors

Background: Food protein-induced enterocolitis syndrome (FPIES) in adults is being increasingly recognized; however, little is known about its characteristics.Objective: To describe the clinical characteristics, prognosis, and associated factors in adult FPIES.Methods: A 10-year prospective study was conducted in the Allergy Section of Alicante General Hospital in adults diagnosed with FPIES. Detailed interviews with patients and oral food challenges (OFCs) were performed to confirm diagnosis or evaluate for tolerance. Comorbidities and possible risk factors were analyzed retrospectively through electronic medical records to assess their association with the disease.Results: One hundred and seven adults with FPIES (93.5% female) were followed for a median of 6.2 years. Abdominal pain was the most common manifestation (96.3%), followed by diarrhea (72%) and vomiting (60.7%). Seafood (59.8%), egg (14%), and milk (10.3%) were the most common triggers, whereas 43.9% reacted to more than 1 food group. We performed 49 OFCs: 9 to confirm diagnosis and 40 to evaluate for tolerance. After a median 3.5 years, 16.8% achieved tolerance. Resolution was correlated inversely with duration of the disease (P = .04) and seafood (P = .023) but not with age of onset. The prevalence of gastrointestinal pathologies such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), eosinophilic esophagitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and celiac disease was higher than in the general population. A higher number of FPIES triggers were correlated with also having a diagnosis of IBS (P = .02).Conclusions: Although adult FPIES normally persists, some patients achieve tolerance. Adults with FPIES have a relatively high prevalence of gastrointestinal pathologies. The predominance of women may be related to hormonal factors. The clinical differences with pediatric FPIES warrant a revision of diagnostic criteria in adults

Food ProteineInduced Enterocolitis Syndrome in Adulthood: Clinical Characteristics, Prognosis, and Risk Factors

Food proteineinduced enterocolitis syndrome (FPIES) in adults is being increasingly recognized; however, little is known about its characteristics. OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical characteristics, prognosis, and associated factors in adult FPIES. METHODS: A 10-year prospective study was conducted in the Allergy Section of Alicante General Hospital in adults diagnosed with FPIES. Detailed interviews with patients and oral food challenges (OFCs) were performed to confirm diagnosis or evaluate for tolerance. Comorbidities and possible risk factors were analyzed retrospectively through electronic medical records to assess their association with the disease. RESULTS: One hundred and seven adults with FPIES (93.5% female) were followed for a median of 6.2 years. Abdominal pain was the most common manifestation (96.3%), followed by diarrhea (72%) and vomiting (60.7%). Seafood (59.8%), egg (14%), and milk (10.3%) were the most common triggers, whereas 43.9% reacted to more than 1 food group. We performed 49 OFCs: 9 to confirm diagnosis and 40 to evaluate for tolerance. After a median 3.5 years, 16.8% achieved tolerance. Resolution was correlated inversely with duration of the disease (P[.04) and seafood (P[.023) but not with age of onset. The prevalence of gastrointestinal pathologies such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), eosinophilic esophagitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and celiac disease was higher than in the general population. A higher number of FPIES triggers were correlated with also having a diagnosis of IBS (P [ .02).CONCLUSIONS: Although adult FPIES normally persists, some patients achieve tolerance. Adults with FPIES have a relatively high prevalence of gastrointestinal pathologies. The predominance of women may be related to hormonal factors. The clinical differences with pediatric FPIES warrant a revision of diagnostic criteria in adults

Differences in immunoreactive trypsin values between type of feeding and ethnicity in neonatal cystic fibrosis screening: a cross-sectional study

Background: We studied the differences in immunoreactive trypsin (IRT) in neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis (CF) associated individually with the age of the newborn, ethnicity and environmental temperature. In this study, we determine the overall influence of environmental temperature at birth, gender, feeding, gestational age, maternal age and ethnic origin on an abnormal IRT result. Methods: Cross-sectional observational study. A sample was selected of newborns from Alicante (Spain) who underwent neonatal CF screening in 2012–2013. Primary variable: abnormal IRT levels (≥65 ng/ml). Secondary variables: gender, maternal origin, maternal age (years) (40), gestational age (weeks) (37), type of feeding (natural, formula, mixed and special nutrition), >20 days from birth to blood collection, and average temperature during the month of birth (in°C). Using a multivariate logistic regression model the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were estimated to analyze the association between atypical IRT levels and the study variables. The α error was 5% and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for the most relevant parameters. Results: Of a total of 13,310 samples, 199 were abnormal (1.34%). Significant associated factors: feeding method (natural → OR = 1; mixed → OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.31-0.89; formula → OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.48-1.07; special → OR = 21.88, 95% CI: 6.92-69.14; p 40), semanas de gestación (37), tipo de lactancia (natural, artificial, mixta y nutrición especial), >20 días desde el nacimiento a la extracción de sangre y temperatura media del mes de nacimiento (en°C). Con un modelo multivariante de regresión logística se estimaron las odds ratio ajustadas (ORs) para analizar la relación entre la TIR atípica y las variables del estudio. El error α fue del 5% y se calcularon intervalos de confianza (IC) para los parámetros más relevantes. Resultados: De un total de 13,310 muestras, 199 estuvieron alteradas (1.34%). Factores asociados significativos: tipo alimentación (Materna → OR = 1; Mixta → OR = 0.53, IC 95%: 0.31-0.89; Fórmula → OR = 0.72, IC 95%: 0.48-1.07; Especial → OR = 21.88, IC 95%: 6.92-69.14; p < 0.001). Conclusiones: Los recién nacidos con nutrición especial tienen 20 veces más riesgo de TIR alterada, siendo aconsejable cribarlos una vez inicien alimentación normalizada. Es aconsejable tener presente la variabilidad étnica. La estacionalidad no fue importante

Construction and Validation of a 14-Year Cardiovascular Risk Score for Use in the General Population: The Puras-GEVA Chart

The current cardiovascular risk tables are based on a 10-year period and therefore, do not allow for predictions in the short or medium term. Thus, we are unable to take more aggressive therapeutic decisions when this risk is very high. To develop and validate a predictive model of cardiovascular disease (CVD), to enable calculation of risk in the short, medium and long term in the general population. Cohort study with 14 years of follow-up (1992–2006) was obtained through random sampling of 342,667 inhabitants in a Spanish region. Main outcome: time-to-CVD. The sample was randomly divided into 2 parts [823 (80%), construction; 227 (20%), validation]. A stepwise Cox model was constructed to determine which variables at baseline (age, sex, blood pressure, etc) were associated with CVD. The model was adapted to a points system and risk groups based on epidemiological criteria (sensitivity and specificity) were established. The risk associated with each score was calculated every 2 years up to a maximum of 14. The estimated model was validated by calculating the C-statistic and comparison between observed and expected events. In the construction sample, 76 patients experienced a CVD during the follow-up (82 cases per 10,000 person-years). Factors in the model included sex, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, occupational physical activity, age, systolic blood pressure × heart rate, number of cigarettes, and total cholesterol. Validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.886 and the comparison between expected and observed events was not significant (P: 0.49–0.75). We constructed and validated a scoring system able to determine, with a very high discriminating power, which patients will develop a CVD in the short, medium, and long term (maximum 14 years). Validation studies are needed for the model constructed.This study has been partially funded by: 1) The Community Board of Castilla-La Mancha, Regional Ministry of Health and Social Affairs (Order of July 3rd, 1992 and Order of September 14th, 1993, both published in Diario Oficial de Castilla-La Mancha, DOCM); 2) Grant from the Foundation for Health Research in Castilla-La Mancha (FISCAM), file number 03069–00

Six simple questions to detect malnutrition or malnutrition risk in elderly women

Of the numerous instruments available to detect nutritional risk, the most widely used is the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), but it takes 15–20 min to complete and its systematic administration in primary care units is not feasible in practice. We developed a tool to evaluate malnutrition risk that can be completed more rapidly using just clinical variables. Between 2008 and 2013, we conducted a cross-sectional study of 418 women aged ≥60 years from Mexico. Our outcome was positive MNA and our secondary variables included were: physical activity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, educational level, dentition, psychological problems, living arrangements, history of falls, age and the number of tablets taken daily. The sample was divided randomly into two groups: construction and validation. Construction: a risk table was constructed to estimate the likelihood of the outcome, and risk groups were formed. Validation: the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated and we compared the expected and the observed outcomes. The following risk factors were identified: physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, dentition, psychological problems and living with the family. The AUC was 0.77 (95% CI [0.68–0.86], p < 0.001). No differences were found between the expected and the observed outcomes (p = 0.902). This study presents a new malnutrition screening test for use in elderly women. The test is based on six very simple, quick and easy-to-evaluate questions, enabling the MNA to be reserved for confirmation. However, it should be used with caution until validation studies have been performed in other geographical areas

Study of the Relationship between the Number of Travelers and Beach Services in Spain

Spain has traditionally been a country where the coast and beaches have acted as raw material to develop the current tourism industry. This has always led diverse scale works and coastal transformations by Public Administrations in order to satisfy tourist needs and striving to attract a greater number of travelers. However, little and less is known about the objective impact on tourism reached by the final coastal typologies taken as a lot, rather than as a specific singular milestone. Therefore, this work has carried out a study of the 24 coastal provinces of Spain, using 31 variables to analyze the characteristics of 3,470 beaches along 1,905 km of Spanish coastline, to subsequently compare the obtained data with the average number of travelers of each province, in order to search for correlations indexes (R2) that may show tourist behavior patterns according to the variables analyzed. Starting from an initial analysis in absolute terms with low correlation rates, it can be seen that trends vary if Spain is divided into four different geographical areas, North, East, South and islands, showing significantly different correlation rates according to beach types, meteorology, and services in each location. The studied correlations show a great geographical segmentation in the concerns of tourists and may serve as a guide for public and private entities to have objective criteria to establish regeneration typologies in coastal works, based on the desired result concerning tourism and sustainability. It may also reveal that some present and past actions, like regenerating gravel beaches using sand, that pursued this same objective share no relationship with tourism according to this study

Diagnostic inertia in dyslipidaemia: results of a preventative programme in Spain

Others have analysed the relationship between inadequate behaviour by healthcare professionals in the diagnosis of dyslipidaemia (diagnostic inertia) and the history of cardiovascular risk factors. However, since no study has assessed cardiovascular risk scores as associated factors, we carried out a study to quantify diagnostic inertia in dyslipidaemia and to determine if cardiovascular risk scores are associated with this inertia. In the Valencian Community (Spain), a preventive programme (cardiovascular, gynaecologic and vaccination) was started in 2003 inviting persons aged ≥40 years to undergo a health check-up at their health centre. This cross-sectional study examined persons with no known dyslipidaemia seen during the first six months of the programme (n = 16, 905) but whose total cholesterol (TC) was ≥5.17 mmol/L. Diagnostic inertia was defined as lack of follow-up to confirm/discard the dyslipidaemia diagnosis. Other variables included in the analysis were gender, history of cardiovascular risk factors/cardiovascular disease, counselling (diet/exercise), body mass index (BMI), age, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipids. TC was grouped as ≥/<6.20 mmol/L. In patients without cardiovascular disease and <75/≤65 years (n = 15, 778/13, 597), the REGICOR (REgistre GIroní del COr)/SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) cardiovascular risk functions were used to classify risk (high/low). Inertia was quantified and the adjusted odds ratios calculated from multivariate models. In the overall sample, the rate of diagnostic inertia was 52% (95% CI [51.2–52.7]); associated factors were TC ≥ 6.20 mmol/L, high or “not measured” BMI, hypertension, smoking and higher values of fasting blood glucose, systolic blood pressure and TC. In the REGICOR sample, the rate of diagnostic inertia was 51.9% (95% CI [51.1–52.7]); associated factors were REGICOR high and high or “not measured” BMI. In the SCORE sample the rate of diagnostic inertia was 51.7% (95% CI [50.9–52.5]); associated factors were SCORE high and high or “not measured” BMI. Diagnostic inertia existed in over half the patients and was associated with a greater cardiovascular risk.Conselleria de Sanitat (Valencian Community)

Diabetes screening: a pending issue in hypertense/obese patients

The literature about possible cardiovascular consequences of diagnostic inertia in diabetes is scarce. We examined the influence of undetected high fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels on the cardiovascular risk and poor control of cardiovascular risk factors in hypertensive or obese patients, with no previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (i.e., diagnostic inertia). A cross-sectional study during a preventive program in a Spanish region was performed in 2003–2004. The participants were aged ≥40 years and did not have diabetes but were hypertensive (n = 5, 347) or obese (n = 7, 833). The outcomes were high cardiovascular risk (SCORE ≥5%), poor control of the blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) and class II obesity. The relationship was examined between FBG and the main parameters, calculating the adjusted odd ratios with multivariate models. Higher values of FBG were associated with all the outcomes. A more proactive attitude towards the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus in the hypertensive and obese population should be adopted.The Conselleria de Sanitat (Valencian Community) gave permission and financial support for this study